The large scale uptake of solar generation and batteries in places like Saudi Arabia and the UAE speaks to the massive cost advantages of solar and other renewables and how that incentivizes switching from fossil fuel to electrical use cases where possible—ground transportation, heat pumps, induction for cooking, etc. It also speaks to their awareness of the forthcoming decline in demand for fossil fuels as fuel.
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One of the main reasons the UAE is leaving OPEC is they have made the calculation that oil sold sooner even if at a lower rate is more valuable than proven reserves left in the ground. This makes very good sense if we are at or near peak demand and much less sense under any other scenario. The cost case for renewables and battery storage is already cheaper and more sustainable than basically any burnable but natural gas, and that’s coming. The whole world knows it, even if it is currently considered heresy by the Republican party.
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The idea of peak fossil fuel demand should also inform our understanding of the Iran war. Iran knows that they have more leverage now than they are ever likely to have again. The combination of a unilateral attack by Donald Trump that has effectively separated us from our allies and his failure to make any kind of case for it in advance, which has prevented any kind of wag the dog patriotic effect is a unique blunder. This war started out highly unpopular at home and abroad and is only getting more so as the economic effects become harder and harder to hide. At some point even the stock market is going to figure it out.
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Add that all together and Iran has maximum incentive to make this hurt as much as possible for as long as possible. Top it off with the demonstrated fact that current Republican government at the Federal level will cheerfully ignore or tear up any international deals it finds inconvenient, and you have a recipe for Iran prolonging the closure of the Strait of Hormuz at least until the fall if they can manage it.
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Which brings me to: Can they really hold out that long? Well, we are starting to get reports that the Pentagon has revised its estimates of how long Iran can hold out without straining their capacity to absorb harm much more than they already are to at least two to three months more. Given how much political pressure defense analysts are under to pretend that Iran is on the brink of collapse, the safe way to bet is that two to three months number is very much on the optimistic end of things when rendered through the lens of the Trump defense department.
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Finally, food for thought. The average length of a modern war is about 15 months.